TENDER ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

Inside SECI’s ₹5.25 thermal-mimic auction

On August 7, 2026, seven developers won SECI’s 1,000 MW FDRE-RTC-V tender at ₹5.25–5.26/kWh — the first contract anywhere to buy renewable energy in a thermal plant’s shaped profile, block by block. Hourly simulation of the final rules across ten states and ten weather years finds the price deliverable: ₹5.15/kWh all-in, penalties included, from 3.0 GW-AC of solar and 12 GWh of usable batteries per 1,000 MW.

UMED PALIWAL, NIKIT ABHYANKAR, AMOL PHADKE · UC BERKELEY

Download Deck (PDF, 1.3 MB)

The world’s first thermal-mimic tender

Earlier round-the-clock procurements, in India and abroad, bought flat baseload supply or annual energy volumes. FDRE-RTC-V buys something harder: in every 15-minute block of the year, at least 90 percent of contracted capacity through six night-and-morning peak hours chosen daily by the buyer, 50 to 60 percent through solar hours, and at least 70 percent in all remaining hours. Shortfalls below the floor are penalized at 1.5 times the tariff, with monthly reconciliation. Storage is mandatory and must charge from renewable energy; the power purchase agreement runs 25 years.

India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy noted the discovered price is cheaper than recent thermal PPAs at ₹5.4 to 6.3 per unit.

FIGURE 1

What the contract demands, hour by hour

Minimum delivery floor per 15-minute block, modelled hourly · % of contracted capacity

Min DFR floorDeliveredShortfall

60% offtake capPeak hours

Three-tier floor: 90% in hours 6, 7, 18, 19, 20, 21; 50% from 8:00 to 18:00 under a 60% offtake cap; 70% otherwise.

How to read this. The stepped band is the contract’s minimum; the forest line is the least-cost Rajasthan design serving it, simulated hour by hour.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

Hour	Min DFR (%)	Tier
00:00	70	Remaining hours — 70% min DFR
01:00	70	Remaining hours — 70% min DFR
02:00	70	Remaining hours — 70% min DFR
03:00	70	Remaining hours — 70% min DFR
04:00	70	Remaining hours — 70% min DFR
05:00	70	Remaining hours — 70% min DFR
06:00	90	Peak hour — 90% min DFR
07:00	90	Peak hour — 90% min DFR
08:00	50	Solar window — 50% min DFR, 60% offtake cap
09:00	50	Solar window — 50% min DFR, 60% offtake cap
10:00	50	Solar window — 50% min DFR, 60% offtake cap
11:00	50	Solar window — 50% min DFR, 60% offtake cap
12:00	50	Solar window — 50% min DFR, 60% offtake cap
13:00	50	Solar window — 50% min DFR, 60% offtake cap
14:00	50	Solar window — 50% min DFR, 60% offtake cap
15:00	50	Solar window — 50% min DFR, 60% offtake cap
16:00	50	Solar window — 50% min DFR, 60% offtake cap
17:00	50	Solar window — 50% min DFR, 60% offtake cap
18:00	90	Peak hour — 90% min DFR
19:00	90	Peak hour — 90% min DFR
20:00	90	Peak hour — 90% min DFR
21:00	90	Peak hour — 90% min DFR
22:00	70	Remaining hours — 70% min DFR
23:00	70	Remaining hours — 70% min DFR

FIGURE 2

The tender's profile is the shape of India's evening

All-India net load against the tender’s required profile, hour of day — each series normalised to its own peak, so this is a shape comparison, not levels.

Gross demand peaks at 10:00; net of grid solar the peak moves to 19:00 at 211 GW. The annual trough is 69% of peak at 13:00 and the April trough is 63%; overnight net load stays near 87% of peak. The evening ramp is 65 GW annually and 81 GW in April, a rate of 13.6 GW per hour.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

Hour	Required profile (% of contracted capacity)	Net load — annual (% of own peak)	Net load — April (% of own peak)
00:00	70	89.6	96.1
01:00	70	87.5	94
02:00	70	85.8	92
03:00	70	84.9	90.8
04:00	70	85.4	90.7
05:00	70	87.8	92
06:00	90	91.5	92.9
07:00	90	91.5	86.8
08:00	50	84.8	75.1
09:00	50	79.5	69.8
10:00	50	75.5	66.5
11:00	50	72.4	64.2
12:00	50	70.6	63.4
13:00	50	69.3	63.3
14:00	50	72.2	67
15:00	50	77.3	73.3
16:00	50	83.1	78.7
17:00	50	90.2	85.1
18:00	90	96.9	93.5
19:00	90	100	100
20:00	90	97.9	99.2
21:00	90	95.8	98.3
22:00	70	94.4	99.1
23:00	70	92.2	98.3

Serving it: a day, and a year

The economics are inverted against the plant’s cheapest energy. Midday solar above the 60 percent cap earns only half the tariff; the price is carried by energy shifted through batteries into the night. The least-cost design charges through the day window and discharges through the buyer’s peak blocks.

FIGURE 3

A day in the life of the least-cost plant

Solar generation, battery flows, delivered output and state of charge · Rajasthan design · GW / GWh

DeliveredSolar to loadBattery dischargeExcess solar

Min DFR floorState of charge

24 hours from 00:00 to 23:00. Delivered ranges 0.50 to 0.90 GW against a floor of 0.50 to 0.90 GW; 0 hours fall below it. State of charge ranges 0.17 to 9.54 GWh.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

24 hours from Mar 2019. Solar to load, battery, shortfall and excess solar decompose the same hour exactly; they stack in that order in the plot.

Hour	Solar to load (GW)	Battery (GW)	Excess solar (GW)	Delivered (GW)	Floor (GW)	SOC (GWh)
00:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.70	0.70	5.91
01:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.70	0.70	5.15
02:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.70	0.70	4.39
03:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.70	0.70	3.63
04:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.70	0.70	2.87
05:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.70	0.70	2.11
06:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.90	0.90	1.13
07:00	0.02	0.88	0.00	0.90	0.90	0.17
08:00	0.50	0.00	0.40	0.50	0.50	0.57
09:00	0.50	0.00	1.19	0.50	0.50	1.76
10:00	0.50	0.00	1.84	0.50	0.50	3.61
11:00	0.50	0.00	0.71	0.50	0.50	4.31
12:00	0.50	0.00	1.18	0.50	0.50	5.49
13:00	0.50	0.00	1.36	0.50	0.50	6.86
14:00	0.50	0.00	0.92	0.50	0.50	7.78
15:00	0.50	0.00	1.52	0.50	0.50	9.29
16:00	0.50	0.00	0.25	0.50	0.50	9.54
17:00	0.26	0.24	0.00	0.50	0.50	9.28
18:00	0.06	0.84	0.00	0.90	0.90	8.37
19:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.90	0.90	7.39
20:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.90	0.90	6.42
21:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.90	0.90	5.44
22:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.70	0.70	4.68
23:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.70	0.70	3.92

FIGURE 4

94% of hours are met outright — and the gaps cluster in the monsoon

Delivery against the floor for every hour of a typical weather year · Rajasthan design

Delivered, % of contracted505763707783–90

Below the floorNo data — bare cream

8,760 hourly cells across 365 days of 2021. 8,233 hours (94%) deliver at or above the min-DFR floor, between 50% and 90% of contracted capacity; the remaining 527 hours fall below it. The full day-by-day summary is in the data table.

How to read this. Each column is a day, each row an hour. The tender’s 5% green-market allowance covers nearly all residual gaps, leaving penalties of about half a percent of revenue in a typical year.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

One row per day, aggregated from the 8,760 hourly cells the chart draws (365 days × 24 hours, 2021). Delivered is a percentage of the contracted capacity; 94% of all hours meet the min-DFR floor.

Day	Hours at/above floor	Hours below floor	Min delivered (%)	Mean delivered (%)
1 Jan	24	0	50	69
2 Jan	22	2	40	66
3 Jan	21	3	0	59
4 Jan	19	5	0	54
5 Jan	12	12	0	45
6 Jan	16	8	0	42
7 Jan	23	1	50	67
8 Jan	24	0	50	68
9 Jan	23	1	34	67
10 Jan	23	1	50	68
11 Jan	24	0	50	68
12 Jan	24	0	50	68
13 Jan	24	0	50	68
14 Jan	23	1	45	68
15 Jan	24	0	50	68
16 Jan	24	0	50	68
17 Jan	24	0	50	68
18 Jan	22	2	28	66
19 Jan	18	6	0	54
20 Jan	22	2	0	63
21 Jan	24	0	50	68
22 Jan	22	2	46	67
23 Jan	23	1	33	66
24 Jan	24	0	50	68
25 Jan	24	0	50	68
26 Jan	24	0	50	68
27 Jan	24	0	50	68
28 Jan	24	0	50	68
29 Jan	24	0	50	68
30 Jan	24	0	50	68
31 Jan	24	0	50	68
1 Feb	24	0	50	68
2 Feb	24	0	50	68
3 Feb	23	1	48	67
4 Feb	24	0	50	68
5 Feb	24	0	50	68
6 Feb	24	0	50	68
7 Feb	24	0	50	68
8 Feb	24	0	50	68
9 Feb	24	0	50	68
10 Feb	24	0	50	68
11 Feb	24	0	50	68
12 Feb	24	0	50	68
13 Feb	24	0	50	68
14 Feb	24	0	50	68
15 Feb	24	0	50	68
16 Feb	24	0	50	68
17 Feb	24	0	50	68
18 Feb	24	0	50	68
19 Feb	24	0	50	68
20 Feb	24	0	50	68
21 Feb	24	0	50	68
22 Feb	24	0	50	68
23 Feb	24	0	50	68
24 Feb	24	0	50	68
25 Feb	24	0	50	68
26 Feb	24	0	50	68
27 Feb	24	0	50	68
28 Feb	24	0	50	68
1 Mar	24	0	50	68
2 Mar	24	0	50	68
3 Mar	24	0	50	68
4 Mar	24	0	50	68
5 Mar	24	0	50	68
6 Mar	24	0	50	68
7 Mar	24	0	50	68
8 Mar	23	1	49	67
9 Mar	24	0	50	67
10 Mar	24	0	50	68
11 Mar	24	0	50	68
12 Mar	24	0	50	68
13 Mar	24	0	50	67
14 Mar	24	0	50	68
15 Mar	24	0	50	67
16 Mar	23	1	42	65
17 Mar	23	1	50	67
18 Mar	24	0	50	67
19 Mar	22	2	4	62
20 Mar	19	5	0	54
21 Mar	24	0	50	67
22 Mar	21	3	8	62
23 Mar	19	5	0	55
24 Mar	24	0	50	68
25 Mar	24	0	50	67
26 Mar	23	1	38	66
27 Mar	24	0	50	68
28 Mar	24	0	50	68
29 Mar	24	0	50	68
30 Mar	24	0	50	68
31 Mar	24	0	50	68
1 Apr	24	0	50	68
2 Apr	24	0	50	68
3 Apr	24	0	50	68
4 Apr	24	0	50	68
5 Apr	24	0	50	68
6 Apr	24	0	50	68
7 Apr	24	0	50	68
8 Apr	24	0	50	68
9 Apr	24	0	50	68
10 Apr	24	0	50	68
11 Apr	24	0	50	68
12 Apr	24	0	50	68
13 Apr	24	0	50	67
14 Apr	22	2	29	65
15 Apr	24	0	50	68
16 Apr	24	0	50	67
17 Apr	24	0	50	68
18 Apr	24	0	50	68
19 Apr	24	0	50	67
20 Apr	24	0	50	67
21 Apr	20	4	0	58
22 Apr	24	0	50	68
23 Apr	24	0	50	68
24 Apr	24	0	50	68
25 Apr	24	0	50	68
26 Apr	24	0	50	68
27 Apr	24	0	50	68
28 Apr	24	0	50	68
29 Apr	24	0	50	67
30 Apr	22	2	38	65
1 May	24	0	50	68
2 May	24	0	50	67
3 May	21	3	2	60
4 May	24	0	50	68
5 May	24	0	50	67
6 May	24	0	50	67
7 May	24	0	50	67
8 May	23	1	50	66
9 May	24	0	50	67
10 May	24	0	50	68
11 May	24	0	50	68
12 May	24	0	50	68
13 May	24	0	50	68
14 May	24	0	50	67
15 May	23	1	50	66
16 May	23	1	50	66
17 May	23	1	50	65
18 May	19	5	0	50
19 May	16	8	0	44
20 May	24	0	50	68
21 May	24	0	50	68
22 May	24	0	50	68
23 May	24	0	50	68
24 May	24	0	50	68
25 May	24	0	50	68
26 May	24	0	50	68
27 May	24	0	50	68
28 May	24	0	50	68
29 May	24	0	50	68
30 May	24	0	50	67
31 May	24	0	50	68
1 Jun	24	0	50	68
2 Jun	24	0	50	68
3 Jun	24	0	50	68
4 Jun	24	0	50	67
5 Jun	24	0	50	68
6 Jun	24	0	50	68
7 Jun	24	0	50	68
8 Jun	24	0	50	68
9 Jun	24	0	50	68
10 Jun	24	0	50	68
11 Jun	24	0	50	68
12 Jun	24	0	50	67
13 Jun	23	1	50	65
14 Jun	24	0	50	68
15 Jun	24	0	50	68
16 Jun	24	0	50	68
17 Jun	24	0	50	67
18 Jun	24	0	50	67
19 Jun	22	2	40	63
20 Jun	22	2	14	61
21 Jun	24	0	50	67
22 Jun	24	0	50	67
23 Jun	24	0	50	68
24 Jun	24	0	50	68
25 Jun	24	0	50	68
26 Jun	24	0	50	68
27 Jun	24	0	50	68
28 Jun	24	0	50	67
29 Jun	22	2	37	62
30 Jun	24	0	50	68
1 Jul	24	0	50	68
2 Jul	24	0	50	67
3 Jul	22	2	48	65
4 Jul	23	1	50	66
5 Jul	23	1	50	66
6 Jul	22	2	13	62
7 Jul	24	0	50	68
8 Jul	24	0	50	68
9 Jul	24	0	50	68
10 Jul	24	0	50	68
11 Jul	24	0	50	67
12 Jul	21	3	21	62
13 Jul	16	8	0	49
14 Jul	22	2	17	61
15 Jul	21	3	0	60
16 Jul	24	0	50	67
17 Jul	24	0	50	67
18 Jul	24	0	50	68
19 Jul	21	3	0	60
20 Jul	8	16	0	27
21 Jul	15	9	0	41
22 Jul	17	7	0	46
23 Jul	19	5	0	57
24 Jul	16	8	0	42
25 Jul	24	0	50	67
26 Jul	20	4	22	63
27 Jul	12	12	0	33
28 Jul	8	16	0	24
29 Jul	8	16	0	24
30 Jul	15	9	0	42
31 Jul	19	5	0	56
1 Aug	18	6	0	53
2 Aug	13	11	0	42
3 Aug	16	8	0	46
4 Aug	23	1	36	64
5 Aug	24	0	50	68
6 Aug	24	0	50	68
7 Aug	24	0	50	68
8 Aug	24	0	50	68
9 Aug	24	0	50	68
10 Aug	24	0	50	68
11 Aug	24	0	50	68
12 Aug	24	0	50	68
13 Aug	24	0	50	68
14 Aug	24	0	50	68
15 Aug	24	0	50	68
16 Aug	24	0	50	68
17 Aug	24	0	50	68
18 Aug	24	0	50	68
19 Aug	24	0	50	68
20 Aug	24	0	50	68
21 Aug	24	0	50	67
22 Aug	23	1	31	64
23 Aug	16	8	0	45
24 Aug	24	0	50	68
25 Aug	24	0	50	68
26 Aug	24	0	50	68
27 Aug	24	0	50	67
28 Aug	24	0	50	68
29 Aug	24	0	50	67
30 Aug	21	3	31	63
31 Aug	16	8	0	43
1 Sep	23	1	46	65
2 Sep	21	3	0	59
3 Sep	16	8	0	43
4 Sep	21	3	0	60
5 Sep	24	0	50	68
6 Sep	24	0	50	67
7 Sep	19	5	0	55
8 Sep	24	0	50	68
9 Sep	24	0	50	67
10 Sep	23	1	50	65
11 Sep	18	6	0	49
12 Sep	21	3	11	60
13 Sep	23	1	50	66
14 Sep	24	0	50	67
15 Sep	21	3	0	60
16 Sep	22	2	14	63
17 Sep	24	0	50	67
18 Sep	23	1	50	67
19 Sep	23	1	7	64
20 Sep	15	9	0	42
21 Sep	16	8	0	46
22 Sep	15	9	0	43
23 Sep	16	8	0	43
24 Sep	19	5	0	52
25 Sep	16	8	0	43
26 Sep	24	0	50	68
27 Sep	24	0	50	68
28 Sep	23	1	50	67
29 Sep	24	0	50	68
30 Sep	24	0	50	67
1 Oct	18	6	0	49
2 Oct	24	0	50	68
3 Oct	24	0	50	68
4 Oct	24	0	50	68
5 Oct	24	0	50	68
6 Oct	24	0	50	68
7 Oct	24	0	50	67
8 Oct	22	2	25	63
9 Oct	24	0	50	68
10 Oct	24	0	50	68
11 Oct	24	0	50	68
12 Oct	24	0	50	67
13 Oct	24	0	50	68
14 Oct	24	0	50	68
15 Oct	24	0	50	68
16 Oct	24	0	50	68
17 Oct	24	0	50	68
18 Oct	24	0	50	67
19 Oct	23	1	50	67
20 Oct	24	0	50	68
21 Oct	24	0	50	68
22 Oct	24	0	50	68
23 Oct	23	1	50	66
24 Oct	21	3	0	58
25 Oct	19	5	0	51
26 Oct	22	2	11	61
27 Oct	23	1	33	64
28 Oct	23	1	50	67
29 Oct	23	1	50	67
30 Oct	24	0	50	68
31 Oct	23	1	50	67
1 Nov	23	1	50	67
2 Nov	23	1	50	66
3 Nov	23	1	50	66
4 Nov	22	2	10	63
5 Nov	23	1	50	67
6 Nov	23	1	50	66
7 Nov	23	1	50	66
8 Nov	22	2	8	63
9 Nov	21	3	4	62
10 Nov	22	2	11	61
11 Nov	23	1	34	64
12 Nov	23	1	38	65
13 Nov	23	1	50	66
14 Nov	23	1	50	65
15 Nov	23	1	50	67
16 Nov	23	1	50	67
17 Nov	23	1	50	65
18 Nov	22	2	2	61
19 Nov	22	2	4	63
20 Nov	23	1	50	65
21 Nov	21	3	0	58
22 Nov	23	1	50	66
23 Nov	23	1	50	66
24 Nov	23	1	50	66
25 Nov	23	1	50	65
26 Nov	23	1	32	65
27 Nov	23	1	50	66
28 Nov	23	1	50	65
29 Nov	23	1	39	65
30 Nov	23	1	49	65
1 Dec	14	10	0	41
2 Dec	15	9	0	40
3 Dec	22	2	0	61
4 Dec	23	1	50	66
5 Dec	23	1	50	66
6 Dec	23	1	50	66
7 Dec	23	1	50	66
8 Dec	23	1	50	66
9 Dec	23	1	50	66
10 Dec	23	1	50	67
11 Dec	23	1	50	66
12 Dec	23	1	50	67
13 Dec	23	1	50	66
14 Dec	23	1	35	65
15 Dec	23	1	50	66
16 Dec	23	1	50	66
17 Dec	23	1	50	66
18 Dec	23	1	50	67
19 Dec	23	1	50	67
20 Dec	23	1	50	67
21 Dec	23	1	50	66
22 Dec	23	1	50	66
23 Dec	18	6	0	53
24 Dec	15	9	0	41
25 Dec	21	3	0	59
26 Dec	13	11	0	37
27 Dec	15	9	0	41
28 Dec	18	6	0	54
29 Dec	15	9	0	43
30 Dec	22	2	0	61
31 Dec	21	3	0	58

What it costs

At conservative Indian benchmarks — solar at ₹3.75 crore per MW-AC, batteries at ₹8,550 per kWh nameplate, a 10 percent cost of capital — the least-cost design comes to roughly ₹22,650 crore per GW of contracted capacity, and serves the full profile at ₹5.15 per kWh all-in, penalties included.

Ten paise inside the tariff: the winning price is deliverable with today’s technology, sized correctly.

FIGURE 5

Where each paisa goes

Component build-up of the all-in cost · Rajasthan least-cost design · ₹/kWh

Cost build-upSolar: capex + O&M + augmentationBattery: capex + O&MCell replacement yr 15Market energy 283 GWhPenalties, avg year

Discovered ₹5.25

The all-in tariff builds to ₹5.16/kWh: Solar: capex + O&M + augmentation ₹2.373, Battery: capex + O&M ₹2.381, Cell replacement yr 15 ₹0.160, Market energy 283 GWh ₹0.212, Penalties, avg year ₹0.028. The discovered tariff is ₹5.25/kWh, so the build-up lands nine paise below it.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

Segment	₹/kWh	Share of total (%)	Running total (₹/kWh)
Solar: capex + O&M + augmentation	2.373	46.0	2.373
Battery: capex + O&M	2.381	46.2	4.754
Cell replacement yr 15	0.160	3.1	4.914
Market energy 283 GWh	0.212	4.1	5.126
Penalties, avg year	0.028	0.5	5.154
All-in tariff	5.155	100.0	5.155
Discovered tariff	5.250	—	—

FIGURE 6

Even the zero-penalty design stays inside the tariff

All-in cost by design case · penalties and market energy included · ₹/kWh

All-in cost for 6 Rajasthan designs, stacked into solar, battery, market energy and penalties. The cheapest is 3.0+12 at ₹5.16/kWh and the dearest is ₹5.92/kWh; one design sits below the discovered tariff of ₹5.25/kWh, and 4 carry no penalty in any weather year.

How to read this. An additional half gigawatt of solar eliminates penalties entirely in every weather year, at ₹5.28/kWh — still inside the discovered band and below recent thermal PPAs.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

Design (GW + GWh)	Solar (₹/kWh)	Battery (₹/kWh)	Market energy (₹/kWh)	Penalties (₹/kWh)	All-in (₹/kWh)	Avg penalty (%)	Worst penalty (%)
3.0+12	2.373	2.541	0.212	0.028	5.155	0.53	2.99
3.5+12	2.688	2.468	0.126	0.000	5.282	0.00	0.00
4.0+12	3.023	2.428	0.081	0.000	5.533	0.00	0.00
3.0+14	2.375	2.968	0.183	0.006	5.532	0.11	1.08
3.5+14	2.693	2.884	0.090	0.000	5.668	0.00	0.00
4.0+14	3.026	2.836	0.054	0.000	5.916	0.00	0.00

The design frontier

Sixty-four solar–battery configurations were priced in each of the ten states; for Rajasthan the grid extends to 80 designs, with batteries up to 24 GWh. The frontier is shallow near its minimum: several designs within a few paise of each other, which is why seven different winners with different portfolios could all clear at nearly the same price.

FIGURE 7

Every design priced: the cost surface has a shallow floor

All-in cost by solar size, one curve per battery size · Rajasthan · ₹/kWh

Battery (GWh) — light to dark, smallest to largest81012162024

₹5.25 discovered tariffCheapest design — ₹5.15

64 configurations were costed; the 6 battery sizes drawn are 8, 10, 12, 16, 20, 24 GWh. The cheapest is 3 GW-AC with 12 GWh at ₹5.16 per kWh, whose worst-year penalty is 2.99% of revenue. The vertical axis is clipped to ₹4.60–₹7.90 per kWh.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

Mean required tariff over weather years, penalties included. Plot clipped to ₹4.60–₹7.90 per kWh; discovered tariff ₹5.25 per kWh.

Solar (GW-AC)	Battery (GWh)	All-in tariff (₹/kWh)	Worst-year penalty (% of revenue)
2.5	8	7.359	39.34
2.5	10	6.208	24.02
2.5	12	6.338	19.79
2.5	16	7.433	19.58
2.5	20	8.542	19.46
2.5	24	9.647	19.34
3	8	7.177	33.55
3	10	5.709	14.88
3	12	5.155	2.99	cheapest design
3	16	5.94	0.04
3	20	6.779	0
3	24	7.624	0
3.5	8	7.317	30.67
3.5	10	5.777	11.08
3.5	12	5.282	0
3.5	16	6.069	0
3.5	20	6.881	0
3.5	24	7.699	0
4	8	7.601	29.05
4	10	5.957	9.03
4	12	5.533	0
4	16	6.311	0
4	20	7.111	0
4	24	7.916	0
4.5	8	7.896	27.78
4.5	10	6.204	7.85
4.5	12	5.81	0
4.5	16	6.585	0
4.5	20	7.376	0
4.5	24	8.172	0
5	8	8.25	26.78
5	10	6.469	6.91
5	12	6.121	0
5	16	6.894	0
5	20	7.681	0
5	24	8.472	0
5.5	8	8.639	25.86
5.5	10	6.735	6.13
5.5	12	6.437	0
5.5	16	7.208	0
5.5	20	7.991	0
5.5	24	8.777	0
6	8	9.003	24.97
6	10	7.024	5.44
6	12	6.746	0
6	16	7.514	0
6	20	8.292	0
6	24	9.073	0

FIGURE 8

The same surface, as a map

All-in cost across the 80-design solar × battery grid (batteries to 24 GWh) · Rajasthan · ₹/kWh

All-in tariff₹5.11 scale floor₹5.25 discovered₹8.00 and above (clipped)

Cost-optimal design ₹5.16Zero-penalty designWorst penalty above 5%

80 designs, 8 solar sizes by 10 battery sizes. Cheapest ₹5.155/kWh at 3 GW-AC with 12 GWh; the colour scale is centred on the discovered ₹5.25/kWh and clipped at ₹8.00/kWh. Every value is in the data table.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

All 80 cells. The colour scale is diverging, centred on the discovered ₹5.25/kWh, running from ₹5.105 and clipped at ₹8.00; cells above the clip keep their true tariff here. "Penalty flagged" marks a worst-month penalty above 5%.

Design	All-in tariff (₹/kWh)	Worst-month penalty (%)	Mark
2.5 GW-AC · 6 GWh	11.230	63.60	Penalty flagged
2.5 GW-AC · 8 GWh	7.359	39.34	Penalty flagged
2.5 GW-AC · 10 GWh	6.208	24.02	Penalty flagged
2.5 GW-AC · 12 GWh	6.337	19.79	Penalty flagged
2.5 GW-AC · 14 GWh	6.879	19.64	Penalty flagged
2.5 GW-AC · 16 GWh	7.433	19.58	Penalty flagged
2.5 GW-AC · 18 GWh	7.988	19.52	Penalty flagged
2.5 GW-AC · 20 GWh	8.542	19.46	Penalty flagged
2.5 GW-AC · 22 GWh	9.095	19.40	Penalty flagged
2.5 GW-AC · 24 GWh	9.647	19.34	Penalty flagged
3 GW-AC · 6 GWh	10.887	59.30	Penalty flagged
3 GW-AC · 8 GWh	7.177	33.55	Penalty flagged
3 GW-AC · 10 GWh	5.709	14.88	Penalty flagged
3 GW-AC · 12 GWh	5.155	2.99	Cost-optimal
3 GW-AC · 14 GWh	5.532	1.08
3 GW-AC · 16 GWh	5.940	0.04
3 GW-AC · 18 GWh	6.358	0.00
3 GW-AC · 20 GWh	6.779	0.00
3 GW-AC · 22 GWh	7.201	0.00
3 GW-AC · 24 GWh	7.624	0.00
3.5 GW-AC · 6 GWh	11.003	56.85	Penalty flagged
3.5 GW-AC · 8 GWh	7.316	30.67	Penalty flagged
3.5 GW-AC · 10 GWh	5.777	11.08	Penalty flagged
3.5 GW-AC · 12 GWh	5.282	0.00	Zero-penalty
3.5 GW-AC · 14 GWh	5.668	0.00
3.5 GW-AC · 16 GWh	6.069	0.00
3.5 GW-AC · 18 GWh	6.474	0.00
3.5 GW-AC · 20 GWh	6.881	0.00
3.5 GW-AC · 22 GWh	7.289	0.00
3.5 GW-AC · 24 GWh	7.699	0.00
4 GW-AC · 6 GWh	11.318	55.12	Penalty flagged
4 GW-AC · 8 GWh	7.601	29.05	Penalty flagged
4 GW-AC · 10 GWh	5.957	9.02	Penalty flagged
4 GW-AC · 12 GWh	5.533	0.00
4 GW-AC · 14 GWh	5.916	0.00
4 GW-AC · 16 GWh	6.311	0.00
4 GW-AC · 18 GWh	6.710	0.00
4 GW-AC · 20 GWh	7.111	0.00
4 GW-AC · 22 GWh	7.513	0.00
4 GW-AC · 24 GWh	7.916	0.00
4.5 GW-AC · 6 GWh	11.793	53.71	Penalty flagged
4.5 GW-AC · 8 GWh	7.896	27.78	Penalty flagged
4.5 GW-AC · 10 GWh	6.204	7.85	Penalty flagged
4.5 GW-AC · 12 GWh	5.810	0.00
4.5 GW-AC · 14 GWh	6.192	0.00
4.5 GW-AC · 16 GWh	6.585	0.00
4.5 GW-AC · 18 GWh	6.980	0.00
4.5 GW-AC · 20 GWh	7.376	0.00
4.5 GW-AC · 22 GWh	7.773	0.00
4.5 GW-AC · 24 GWh	8.172	0.00
5 GW-AC · 6 GWh	12.201	52.33	Penalty flagged
5 GW-AC · 8 GWh	8.250	26.78	Penalty flagged
5 GW-AC · 10 GWh	6.469	6.90	Penalty flagged
5 GW-AC · 12 GWh	6.121	0.00
5 GW-AC · 14 GWh	6.504	0.00
5 GW-AC · 16 GWh	6.894	0.00
5 GW-AC · 18 GWh	7.286	0.00
5 GW-AC · 20 GWh	7.681	0.00
5 GW-AC · 22 GWh	8.076	0.00
5 GW-AC · 24 GWh	8.472	0.00
5.5 GW-AC · 6 GWh	12.633	51.12	Penalty flagged
5.5 GW-AC · 8 GWh	8.639	25.86	Penalty flagged
5.5 GW-AC · 10 GWh	6.734	6.13	Penalty flagged
5.5 GW-AC · 12 GWh	6.437	0.00
5.5 GW-AC · 14 GWh	6.819	0.00
5.5 GW-AC · 16 GWh	7.208	0.00
5.5 GW-AC · 18 GWh	7.599	0.00
5.5 GW-AC · 20 GWh	7.991	0.00
5.5 GW-AC · 22 GWh	8.384	0.00
5.5 GW-AC · 24 GWh	8.777	0.00
6 GW-AC · 6 GWh	13.143	50.08	Penalty flagged
6 GW-AC · 8 GWh	9.003	24.97	Penalty flagged
6 GW-AC · 10 GWh	7.024	5.44	Penalty flagged
6 GW-AC · 12 GWh	6.746	0.00
6 GW-AC · 14 GWh	7.127	0.00
6 GW-AC · 16 GWh	7.514	0.00
6 GW-AC · 18 GWh	7.903	0.00
6 GW-AC · 20 GWh	8.293	0.00
6 GW-AC · 22 GWh	8.683	0.00
6 GW-AC · 24 GWh	9.073	0.00

FIGURE 9

Every $10/kWh off battery prices takes ₹0.28 off the tariff

All-in cost as a function of installed battery price · Rajasthan least-cost design · ₹/kWh

Battery price$90/kWh · ₹8,550/kWh₹5.15/kWh

Battery price is shown from $50 to $130 per kWh of nameplate at ₹95 to the dollar. Rajasthan, optimum (3 GW + 12 GWh): ₹4.02/kWh at $50, ₹5.15/kWh at the base case, ₹6.29/kWh at $130. Karnataka, median state (3.5 GW + 12 GWh): ₹4.38/kWh at $50, ₹5.51/kWh at the base case, ₹6.64/kWh at $130. The discovered tariff is ₹5.25/kWh.

How to read this. The ₹5.25 result implies installed battery systems near $93/kWh. As prices continue to fall, future auctions could clear near ₹4.3–4.6/kWh — decisively below new coal. Drag the slider to reprice the plant.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

All-in cost including penalties, at ₹95 to the dollar; discovered tariff ₹5.25/kWh.

Battery price ($/kWh)	Battery price (₹/kWh)	Rajasthan, optimum (3 GW + 12 GWh) (₹/kWh all-in)	Karnataka, median state (3.5 GW + 12 GWh) (₹/kWh all-in)
50	4750	4.018	4.384
55	5225	4.16	4.525
60	5700	4.302	4.666
65	6175	4.444	4.807
70	6650	4.586	4.948
75	7125	4.728	5.089
80	7600	4.87	5.23
85	8075	5.011	5.371
90	8550	5.153	5.512	base case
95	9025	5.295	5.653
100	9500	5.437	5.794
105	9975	5.579	5.936
110	10450	5.721	6.077
115	10925	5.863	6.218
120	11400	6.005	6.359
125	11875	6.147	6.5	India 4-hour benchmark
130	12350	6.289	6.641

Geography, and the hardest week

Rajasthan is the cheapest site, but it is not alone: several states deliver the profile within a narrow band of the winning price. The binding constraint everywhere is the same — stretches of consecutive low-sun days, concentrated in the monsoon and its cloudy aftermath, that drain battery reserves faster than they refill.

FIGURE 10

The winning price travels: several states land within a few paise

All-in cost of the least-cost and zero-penalty designs by state · ₹/kWh

DesignCost-optimal (lean)Zero-penalty

₹5.25 discovered tariffValue shown where a bar exceeds it

Jammu Kashmir: cost-optimal 3+12 at ₹4.93/kWh with 0.00% average and 0.00% worst-year penalty; zero-penalty 3+12 at ₹4.93/kWh. Rajasthan: cost-optimal 3+12 at ₹5.15/kWh with 0.53% average and 2.99% worst-year penalty; zero-penalty 3.5+12 at ₹5.28/kWh. Gujarat: cost-optimal 3+12 at ₹5.22/kWh with 1.52% average and 3.28% worst-year penalty; zero-penalty 4+12 at ₹5.56/kWh. Tamil Nadu: cost-optimal 3.5+12 at ₹5.41/kWh with 0.29% average and 1.45% worst-year penalty; zero-penalty 4+12 at ₹5.61/kWh. Madhya Pradesh: cost-optimal 3.5+12 at ₹5.51/kWh with 1.18% average and 4.19% worst-year penalty; zero-penalty 4.5+12 at ₹5.91/kWh. Karnataka: cost-optimal 3.5+12 at ₹5.52/kWh with 1.26% average and 2.70% worst-year penalty; zero-penalty 4+12 at ₹5.64/kWh. Andhra Pradesh: cost-optimal 3.5+12 at ₹5.54/kWh with 1.45% average and 4.56% worst-year penalty; zero-penalty 4.5+12 at ₹5.92/kWh. Telangana: cost-optimal 3.5+12 at ₹5.54/kWh with 1.18% average and 2.37% worst-year penalty; zero-penalty 4+12 at ₹5.67/kWh. Haryana: cost-optimal 3.5+12 at ₹5.58/kWh with 1.62% average and 4.03% worst-year penalty; zero-penalty 4.5+12 at ₹5.94/kWh. Maharashtra: cost-optimal 3.5+12 at ₹5.58/kWh with 1.71% average and 3.47% worst-year penalty; zero-penalty 4.5+12 at ₹5.94/kWh.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

Configuration is solar GW-AC plus usable GWh per GW contracted. Discovered tariff ₹5.25/kWh.

State	Cost-optimal config	Cost-optimal (₹/kWh)	Avg penalty (%)	Worst penalty (%)	Zero-penalty config	Zero-penalty (₹/kWh)
Jammu Kashmir	3+12	4.93	0	0	3+12	4.93
Rajasthan	3+12	5.15	0.53	2.99	3.5+12	5.28
Gujarat	3+12	5.22	1.52	3.28	4+12	5.56
Tamil Nadu	3.5+12	5.41	0.29	1.45	4+12	5.61
Madhya Pradesh	3.5+12	5.51	1.18	4.19	4.5+12	5.91
Karnataka	3.5+12	5.52	1.26	2.7	4+12	5.64
Andhra Pradesh	3.5+12	5.54	1.45	4.56	4.5+12	5.92
Telangana	3.5+12	5.54	1.18	2.37	4+12	5.67
Haryana	3.5+12	5.58	1.62	4.03	4.5+12	5.94
Maharashtra	3.5+12	5.58	1.71	3.47	4.5+12	5.94

FIGURE 11

Shortfall is a monsoon phenomenon

Energy short of the floor by month · mean and worst weather year · Rajasthan design · GWh

Monthly physical shortfall against the min-DFR requirement. Mean shortfall peaks at 65.3 GWh in Aug; the worst weather year 2019 peaks at 79.5 GWh in Nov. 56% of the average year's shortfall falls in the monsoon months Jun to Sep, against a monthly requirement of about 496 GWh.

How to read this. Each pair is one month: the solid bar is the mean physical shortfall across the weather years, the outlined bar is the worst of them (2019). The grey track behind is that month's min-DFR requirement. Shortfall here is pre-allowance — the tender's market-energy allowance is an annual 292 GWh per year, against 304 GWh of mean annual shortfall, so it is stated here rather than drawn on a monthly plot.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

Month	Mean shortfall (GWh)	Worst year 2019 (GWh)	Required (GWh)	Mean, % of required
Jan	31.52	47.02	496	6.35
Feb	10.76	21.19	448	2.40
Mar	14.40	31.30	496	2.90
Apr	8.34	11.84	480	1.74
May	5.52	8.31	496	1.11
Jun	21.20	25.28	480	4.42
Jul	61.71	39.03	496	12.44
Aug	65.29	65.63	496	13.16
Sep	23.12	33.44	480	4.82
Oct	10.86	21.75	496	2.19
Nov	26.95	79.51	480	5.61
Dec	23.92	22.98	496	4.82

FIGURE 12

The decade's hardest week: November 2019, hour by hour

Dispatch through the hardest week of 2015–2024 (Nov 2019) · Rajasthan design · GW / GWh

DeliveredSolar to loadBattery dischargeShortfallExcess solar

Min DFR floorState of charge

168 hours from 12 Nov · 00:00 to 18 Nov · 23:00. Delivered ranges 0.00 to 0.90 GW against a floor of 0.50 to 0.90 GW; 69 hours fall below it. State of charge ranges 0.00 to 9.84 GWh.

How to read this. Even in the decade’s worst weather year, penalties stay near 3 percent of revenue — and the zero-penalty design clears every block.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

168 hours from Nov 2019. Solar to load, battery, shortfall and excess solar decompose the same hour exactly; they stack in that order in the plot.

Hour	Solar to load (GW)	Battery (GW)	Shortfall (GW)	Excess solar (GW)	Delivered (GW)	Floor (GW)	SOC (GWh)
12 Nov 00:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	5.47
12 Nov 01:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	4.71
12 Nov 02:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	3.95
12 Nov 03:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	3.19
12 Nov 04:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	2.43
12 Nov 05:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	1.66
12 Nov 06:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	0.69
12 Nov 07:00	0.02	0.63	0.25	0.00	0.65	0.90	0.00
12 Nov 08:00	0.20	0.00	0.30	0.00	0.20	0.50	0.00
12 Nov 09:00	0.46	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.46	0.50	0.00
12 Nov 10:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.31	0.50	0.50	0.31
12 Nov 11:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.74	0.50	0.50	2.05
12 Nov 12:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.84	0.50	0.50	3.89
12 Nov 13:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.85	0.50	0.50	5.74
12 Nov 14:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.58	0.50	0.50	7.32
12 Nov 15:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.08	0.50	0.50	8.39
12 Nov 16:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.36	0.50	0.50	8.75
12 Nov 17:00	0.12	0.38	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.50	8.34
12 Nov 18:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	7.36
12 Nov 19:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	6.38
12 Nov 20:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	5.40
12 Nov 21:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	4.43
12 Nov 22:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	3.67
12 Nov 23:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	2.90
13 Nov 00:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	2.14
13 Nov 01:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	1.38
13 Nov 02:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	0.62
13 Nov 03:00	0.00	0.57	0.13	0.00	0.57	0.70	0.00
13 Nov 04:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
13 Nov 05:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
13 Nov 06:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
13 Nov 07:00	0.01	0.00	0.89	0.00	0.01	0.90	0.00
13 Nov 08:00	0.20	0.00	0.30	0.00	0.20	0.50	0.00
13 Nov 09:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.50	0.50	0.08
13 Nov 10:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.52	0.50	0.50	0.61
13 Nov 11:00	0.44	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.50	0.54
13 Nov 12:00	0.46	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.50	0.50
13 Nov 13:00	0.44	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.50	0.43
13 Nov 14:00	0.37	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.50	0.29
13 Nov 15:00	0.27	0.24	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.50	0.04
13 Nov 16:00	0.17	0.03	0.30	0.00	0.20	0.50	0.00
13 Nov 17:00	0.01	0.00	0.49	0.00	0.01	0.50	0.00
13 Nov 18:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
13 Nov 19:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
13 Nov 20:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
13 Nov 21:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
13 Nov 22:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
13 Nov 23:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
14 Nov 00:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
14 Nov 01:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
14 Nov 02:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
14 Nov 03:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
14 Nov 04:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
14 Nov 05:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
14 Nov 06:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
14 Nov 07:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
14 Nov 08:00	0.17	0.00	0.33	0.00	0.17	0.50	0.00
14 Nov 09:00	0.23	0.00	0.27	0.00	0.23	0.50	0.00
14 Nov 10:00	0.34	0.00	0.16	0.00	0.34	0.50	0.00
14 Nov 11:00	0.42	0.00	0.08	0.00	0.42	0.50	0.00
14 Nov 12:00	0.43	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.43	0.50	0.00
14 Nov 13:00	0.41	0.00	0.09	0.00	0.41	0.50	0.00
14 Nov 14:00	0.35	0.00	0.15	0.00	0.35	0.50	0.00
14 Nov 15:00	0.24	0.00	0.26	0.00	0.24	0.50	0.00
14 Nov 16:00	0.15	0.00	0.35	0.00	0.15	0.50	0.00
14 Nov 17:00	0.03	0.00	0.47	0.00	0.03	0.50	0.00
14 Nov 18:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
14 Nov 19:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
14 Nov 20:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
14 Nov 21:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
14 Nov 22:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
14 Nov 23:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
15 Nov 00:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
15 Nov 01:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
15 Nov 02:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
15 Nov 03:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
15 Nov 04:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
15 Nov 05:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
15 Nov 06:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
15 Nov 07:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
15 Nov 08:00	0.43	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.43	0.50	0.00
15 Nov 09:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.33	0.50	0.50	0.34
15 Nov 10:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.50	0.50	1.24
15 Nov 11:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.60	0.50	0.50	2.84
15 Nov 12:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.42	0.50	0.50	4.26
15 Nov 13:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.34	0.50	0.50	5.60
15 Nov 14:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.75	0.50	0.50	6.35
15 Nov 15:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.50	0.50	6.41
15 Nov 16:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.50	0.50	6.49
15 Nov 17:00	0.04	0.46	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.50	5.98
15 Nov 18:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	5.00
15 Nov 19:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	4.03
15 Nov 20:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	3.05
15 Nov 21:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	2.07
15 Nov 22:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	1.31
15 Nov 23:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	0.55
16 Nov 00:00	0.00	0.50	0.20	0.00	0.50	0.70	0.00
16 Nov 01:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
16 Nov 02:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
16 Nov 03:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
16 Nov 04:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
16 Nov 05:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
16 Nov 06:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
16 Nov 07:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
16 Nov 08:00	0.33	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.33	0.50	0.00
16 Nov 09:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.41	0.50	0.50	0.41
16 Nov 10:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.15	0.50	0.50	1.56
16 Nov 11:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.57	0.50	0.50	3.13
16 Nov 12:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.62	0.50	0.50	4.75
16 Nov 13:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.53	0.50	0.50	6.28
16 Nov 14:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.20	0.50	0.50	7.47
16 Nov 15:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.80	0.50	0.50	8.27
16 Nov 16:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.16	0.50	0.50	8.43
16 Nov 17:00	0.04	0.46	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.50	7.93
16 Nov 18:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	6.95
16 Nov 19:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	5.97
16 Nov 20:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	4.99
16 Nov 21:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	4.01
16 Nov 22:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	3.25
16 Nov 23:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	2.49
17 Nov 00:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	1.73
17 Nov 01:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	0.97
17 Nov 02:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	0.21
17 Nov 03:00	0.00	0.19	0.51	0.00	0.19	0.70	0.00
17 Nov 04:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
17 Nov 05:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
17 Nov 06:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
17 Nov 07:00	0.01	0.00	0.89	0.00	0.01	0.90	0.00
17 Nov 08:00	0.49	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.49	0.50	0.00
17 Nov 09:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.67	0.50	0.50	0.67
17 Nov 10:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.26	0.50	0.50	1.93
17 Nov 11:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.59	0.50	0.50	3.52
17 Nov 12:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.79	0.50	0.50	5.31
17 Nov 13:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.70	0.50	0.50	7.01
17 Nov 14:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.04	0.50	0.50	8.05
17 Nov 15:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.91	0.50	0.50	8.96
17 Nov 16:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.23	0.50	0.50	9.19
17 Nov 17:00	0.06	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.50	8.71
17 Nov 18:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	7.74
17 Nov 19:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	6.76
17 Nov 20:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	5.78
17 Nov 21:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	4.80
17 Nov 22:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	4.04
17 Nov 23:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	3.28
18 Nov 00:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	2.52
18 Nov 01:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	1.76
18 Nov 02:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	1.00
18 Nov 03:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	0.24
18 Nov 04:00	0.00	0.22	0.48	0.00	0.22	0.70	0.00
18 Nov 05:00	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.00
18 Nov 06:00	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.00
18 Nov 07:00	0.05	0.00	0.86	0.00	0.05	0.90	0.00
18 Nov 08:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.27	0.50	0.50	0.27
18 Nov 09:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.03	0.50	0.50	1.30
18 Nov 10:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.58	0.50	0.50	2.88
18 Nov 11:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.93	0.50	0.50	4.81
18 Nov 12:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.96	0.50	0.50	6.77
18 Nov 13:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.26	0.50	0.50	8.03
18 Nov 14:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.50	0.50	9.04
18 Nov 15:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.63	0.50	0.50	9.66
18 Nov 16:00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.18	0.50	0.50	9.84
18 Nov 17:00	0.17	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.50	9.48
18 Nov 18:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	8.50
18 Nov 19:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	7.52
18 Nov 20:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	6.54
18 Nov 21:00	0.00	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.90	0.90	5.57
18 Nov 22:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	4.80
18 Nov 23:00	0.00	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.70	0.70	4.04

Stricter than the fleet it mimics

The natural question is how coal itself would fare under this contract. Scoring India’s 213 operating coal stations against the same profile, on their actual daily outage records from June 2024 to May 2025 and with the same market-energy allowance, 48 percent would have paid penalties — and 18 percent would have lost more than a tenth of their revenue. The solar-plus-storage plants designed here are more reliable, under this tender’s own standard, than most of the thermal fleet they are asked to imitate.

FIGURE 13

Under its own test, nearly half the coal fleet pays penalties

India's operating coal stations scored against the FDRE-RTC-V profile · Jun 2024 – May 2025, CEA outage data · penalty as a share of revenue

Compliant (111)Pays a penalty (102)

Of 213 operating Indian coal stations scored against the tender's own profile over Jun 2024 to May 2025, 47.9% would owe a penalty and 18.3% would owe more than a tenth of revenue; the median penalty is 0.0%. The largest band is the compliant one at 52.1% of the fleet.

UC BERKELEY ANALYSIS OF CEA DATA · AUGUST 2026

View the data table

Penalty band	Stations	Share of 213 (%)
0 (compliant)	111	52.1
0-1%	10	4.7
1-5%	31	14.6
5-10%	22	10.3
10-20%	21	9.9
>20%	18	8.5

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